On August 4, 1860, Lincoln sent a letter to Oregonian Simeon Francis about the likely success of his presidential run. "I hesitate to say it," he wrote, "but it really appears now, as if the success of the Republican ticket is inevitable. …I should expect …a fair chance in Oregon."
It is difficult today to conceive of the United States without a President Lincoln. Yet, the representative from Illinois once considered a more modest political appointment in Oregon Territory—an appointment that likely would have kept him from his party's nomination in 1860.
In 1849, President Zachary Taylor appointed Lincoln secretary of Oregon Territory, with the possibility of a governorship. Statehood was coming to Oregon, Lincoln knew, and he believed he could turn his appointment into a senate seat.
His friends and political allies encouraged him to accept, and prominent Oregonians such as Harvey Scott anticipated his appointment. In the end, however, Lincoln decided to stay in the thick of federal politics and declined in a short note to his friend John Addison:
I cannot but be grateful to you and all other friends who have interested themselves in having the governorship of Oregon offered to me, but on as much reflection as I have had time to give the subject, I cannot consent to accept it.
Lincoln remained close to Francis, who continued to promote Lincoln on the editorial pages of Oregon's major newspapers. The letter Lincoln sent to Francis predicting his presidential victory is archived in the Oregon Historical Society's Research Library.
